Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will experience peak summer heat on 16 August 2026, with the market seeking to predict the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station that day. The resolution hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when station readings fluctuate throughout daylight hours.

August temperatures in Shenzhen typically range between 28–35°C, though the city's coastal subtropical climate and urban heat island effect regularly push daily highs toward 34–36°C during mid-August. Historical records from the past decade show that extreme heat days—those exceeding 37°C—occur sporadically but not uncommonly during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting an unusually hot outcome or the market has insufficient liquidity to reflect genuine uncertainty about temperature ranges above baseline expectations.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns emerging in July 2026 and any tropical systems developing in the South China Sea, as typhoons or monsoon shifts can suppress temperatures or, conversely, create stagnant high-pressure conditions that amplify heat. Bao'an Airport's measurement protocols remain consistent year-to-year, though equipment maintenance schedules occasionally affect data continuity. Weather Underground's historical accuracy for this station is well-documented, making the Daily Observations table a reliable settlement source. The settlement window closes at midday on 16 August, meaning afternoon temperature spikes will be captured before resolution.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.