Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on 19 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with the specific measurement drawn from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. Shenzhen's August climate sits firmly within its summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 29–34°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 36–38°C occur irregularly.

Historical August data from Bao'an station shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur in roughly 15–20% of years during mid-August, whilst readings above 37°C remain uncommon but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a notably cool day relative to seasonal norms, or reflect genuine uncertainty about the specific threshold bands offered. August 2026 falls within a period where longer-term climate patterns and any developing La Niña or El Niño conditions could influence regional heat distribution, though such forecasts remain unreliable at this distance.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early-to-mid August 2026, as storm systems can suppress daytime temperatures substantially. Real-time weather forecasts become actionable only in the final week before 19 August; early-month outlooks carry limited predictive value. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 19 August, requiring resolution data from Bao'an station to be published and verified by Weather Underground within hours of local midnight.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.