Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on 21 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution. The measurement will be drawn from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date.

Shenzhen's August temperatures are among the year's most consistent. Historical data from the airport station shows that daily highs in late August typically range between 31–34°C, with readings above 35°C occurring in roughly 15–20% of years during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the outcome to fall outside the highest temperature bracket offered, though August remains Shenzhen's hottest month with sustained heat and high humidity driven by the East Asian summer monsoon.

The primary variable affecting resolution will be weather patterns in the weeks preceding 21 August 2026. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, which occasionally brings cooler air masses or cloud cover to the region, typically peaks in August and September. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and tropical cyclone tracking from late July onwards. The specific resolution source—Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Shenzhen Bao'an—has occasionally shown minor discrepancies with other reporting stations, so confirmation of data availability from that exact source ahead of the settlement window would be prudent.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.