Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport temperature on 3 August is a straight weather call, and the market is currently leaning to a fairly narrow late-summer daytime high. Crowd pricing is concentrated around **28–30°C**, with **29°C** the leading outcome at **31%** and **28°C** next at **24%**, which is consistent with a low-volatility outcome rather than a sharp heat spike or cool-out. [3]

That reading fits Shenzhen’s August climate profile, where highs are typically in the low 30s Celsius and humidity and showers often keep extremes in check. Climatology sources put August highs around **32°C** on average, with typical daily highs around **31–34°C** and heavy rain common, so a mid-to-high 20s or low 30s result would sit within normal bounds for the city. [8][11][12] The market’s 0% yes price for any single alternative outcome reflects how tightly traders are clustering around the expected range rather than expecting an outlier. [3]

The main catalysts are the day’s local heat build-up, convective rainfall, and any shift in cloud cover or monsoon flow, all of which can cap the top temperature at the Shenzhen Bao’an station before mid-afternoon. Traders will also watch the Wunderground history feed for the station’s final daily peak, because the market resolves to the highest recorded reading there for the full day, with late updates only counted until the next day’s first datapoint appears. [3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.