Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s peak temperature on 4 August is likely to be shaped by a hot, humid late-summer setup rather than a cool spell. Seasonal guides and monthly normals put August highs around 31–32°C, with rain and cloud common and the broader wet season running from May to September.[3][16][18][20] That matters for this market because the settled band is based on the day’s *highest* reading at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, so even a brief midday surge can lift the result above the most conservative forecasts.[14]

The current 0% yes price looks aggressive against the live forecast picture. Hong Kong’s 24-hour Guangdong bulletin has Shenzhen at **25–29°C** with overcast conditions on 4 August, while other consumer forecasts cluster around the low 30s and mention rain or patchy rain rather than a sustained heat spike.[5][3][9] By comparison, August climatology in Shenzhen is typically hot but not extreme, with daily highs often around 32°C and occasional readings into the low 30s rather than the mid-to-high 30s.[8][16][18] That makes the probability of an outcome above the market’s top band appear limited, unless local conditions warm more than expected.

Traders should watch the same-day forecast trend, especially any shift in the official Guangdong bulletin, radar, or airport observations as convection moves through southern China.[5][7][10] August in Shenzhen also sits inside the typhoon-prone, rain-heavy part of the year, which can suppress maximum temperatures if cloud and showers persist through the afternoon.[19][20] On the market board, the leading outcomes are concentrated around 29°C to 31°C, which is consistent with the published forecast range and suggests the key dependency is whether the day briefly clears enough to produce a one-off higher peak.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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