Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s weather on 6 August is usually decided by heat, humidity and monsoon rain rather than any abrupt seasonal change, so the relevant question is whether the day peaks in the low 30s or gets suppressed by showers and cloud. Several August climatology pages place Shenzhen’s typical highs around 31–32°C, while broader monthly forecasts for this year still cluster the city near 31–34°C for the first week of August, with rain possible but not guaranteed[4][7][11].

That context makes a 0% yes price hard to read as a pure temperature call, because the listed settlement source is the airport station’s daily maximum, not a city-wide average, and airport readings can run a little different from central Shenzhen depending on sea breeze, cloud and rainfall timing[13][14]. The main catalysts to watch are the morning and midday forecast updates, any tropical disturbance or thunderstorm line over the Pearl River Delta, and whether official forecasts shift towards prolonged rain or a hotter, drier air mass; Hong Kong’s regional forecast for Shenzhen currently points to a 34°C maximum with fine-to-cloudy conditions, which is consistent with a warm afternoon if showers stay fragmented[6].

In comparable Shenzhen August setups, the upper end of the distribution is often reached when skies stay partly clear long enough for strong afternoon heating, but widespread rain tends to cap the daily high closer to the low 30s[2][15][19]. For traders, the key dependency is the timing of rainfall relative to the daily heat cycle: early rain usually lowers the eventual maximum more than late-evening rain, while brief convective showers can leave the day’s high untouched if the sun returns quickly[2][6][11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.