Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. Taipei's August climate is characterised by hot, humid conditions during the tail end of the summer monsoon season, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 36°C.

Historical August temperatures at Songshan Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. Over the past two decades, peak daily temperatures in mid-August have ranged from 31°C in cooler years to 37°C during heat waves, with the station recording readings above 35°C in roughly 60% of August days on average. The current 0% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in a specific temperature threshold as unlikely; traders should verify which exact range the market is testing against historical norms for that particular date window.

Traders monitoring this market should track weather forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration in the weeks leading to mid-August 2026, as seasonal patterns and any anomalous pressure systems could shift outcomes materially. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary is critical—discrepancies occasionally arise from station calibration or reporting timing, making source verification essential at settlement. Local typhoon activity or unusual atmospheric conditions in early-to-mid August would be the primary catalysts affecting temperature extremes on the resolution date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.