Highest temperature in Taipei on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 19 July 2026 will determine which range this market settles into. Taipei's summer climate is characterised by intense heat and humidity, with July typically among the hottest months of the year. Historical data from the airport's weather station shows July daily highs consistently exceed 33°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves.

Taipei's temperature patterns in mid-July depend heavily on monsoon activity and the position of the Pacific high-pressure system. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the actual temperature to fall outside the highest range bracket offered by this market. Comparable July days at Songshan Airport over the past decade show that extreme heat above 37°C occurs roughly once every two to three years during this period, making very high readings plausible but not routine. The settlement window closes at midday on 19 July, capturing the morning and early afternoon period when temperatures typically peak.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the week preceding 19 July, particularly from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration, which publishes detailed temperature predictions for Taipei. Any significant tropical system or typhoon activity in the western Pacific could suppress temperatures by increasing cloud cover and rainfall. Conversely, a reinforced high-pressure system would favour above-average heat. The specific range brackets available will clarify whether the crowd's 0% assessment reflects confidence in moderate temperatures or uncertainty about which extreme bracket applies.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.