Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is already running hot, with AccuWeather showing **88°F** and a RealFeel of **103°F**, while the market still prices **36°C** as the clear frontrunner at **93%** and **37°C or higher** at **5%**.[2][1] That pricing fits the broader July climatology for Taipei, where July is typically the hottest month and the daytime average high sits around **34°C**, with most days clustering only a degree or two above or below that level.[4]

For traders, the key question is whether today’s heat can push the airport reading beyond the market’s dominant 36°C band before the settlement window closes. Songshan’s forecast calls for sunshine with only a light to gentle breeze, which supports further warming if cloud cover stays limited, but Taipei’s summer rainfall pattern often shifts to late-afternoon showers after humidity has built through the day.[3][4] The gap between the lead outcome and the next rung is relatively small, so any change in cloud cover, rainfall, or a weaker-than-expected afternoon breeze is the main catalyst for a move into 37°C-plus territory.[3][1]

Because the resolution source is the daily Wunderground record for Taipei Songshan Airport, the decisive inputs are the station’s observed peak reading and whether the hottest hour arrives before local conditions begin to cool.[1] Comparable July extremes show Taipei can overshoot its average heat profile, but the market’s current 0% YES framing implies the crowd sees the upper tail as unlikely, not impossible, and is leaning heavily towards a result that stays within the 36°C bucket.[4][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.