Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 12 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with the measurement taken from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess August conditions in Tokyo during the peak of the Japanese summer.

Tokyo's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C at Haneda Airport. Historical data from the past decade shows that temperatures exceeding 37°C occur in roughly one year per five, whilst readings below 30°C are exceptionally rare during mid-August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific expectation of cooler conditions or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Comparable August 12th readings from prior years provide the most direct reference point for calibrating expectations.

Weather patterns affecting Tokyo in early August depend on the position of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the region. The Japan Meteorological Agency typically issues extended forecasts by late July, which traders should monitor for any unusual atmospheric setup. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months can influence summer temperatures across East Asia, though their predictive power at a specific date remains limited. Any significant weather system—including typhoons tracking toward the Kanto region—would be the primary catalyst shifting temperature expectations materially from the historical August average.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.