Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution determined by the highest recorded reading in degrees Celsius rather than summary high-low figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside whatever range options are available, or that the specific measurement methodology creates uncertainty about which bracket will ultimately capture the day's maximum.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with historical data showing the airport station frequently records highs in the low-to-mid 33°C range during mid-August. The 2023 and 2024 August periods saw comparable readings, though extreme heat events have occasionally pushed the station above 36°C. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations and Day High & Low summaries has resolved previous weather markets differently, occasionally by 0.5–1°C, making source selection material to outcome.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Pacific typhoon activity in late July or early August could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems tracking across central Japan would elevate them. Historical precedent suggests the most likely outcome clusters around 33–34°C, though the 0% current probability indicates either extreme confidence in an outlier outcome or limited liquidity in intermediate ranges.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.