Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with resolution based on the specific hourly readings rather than the summary high-low figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside all available ranges or that the range structure itself creates settlement ambiguity.

August in Tokyo typically sees daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from recent years shows considerable variability: August 2023 recorded a high of 35.1°C at Haneda, whilst August 2022 reached 36.4°C. The 0% probability reading likely reflects either an extremely narrow or poorly calibrated range structure rather than genuine certainty about the weather outcome. Traders should verify the exact temperature brackets offered before committing capital.

The key dependency is Weather Underground's data availability and the distinction between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section, which the market explicitly prioritises. Haneda Airport's automated weather station provides reliable hourly readings, though summer measurement timing can affect recorded peaks. Traders should monitor the specific range options available and confirm the resolution methodology aligns with Wunderground's actual data presentation before the settlement window closes on 18 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.