Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 19 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the official resolution source for this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for any temperature readings recorded in the early morning hours before the market resolves.

August in Tokyo typically sees high temperatures between 32–35°C, with humidity levels that frequently exceed 70%. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that 19 August has recorded peaks ranging from 29°C to 37°C over the past two decades, with an average high near 33°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will resolve or expect the market to remain unresolved due to data access issues. Comparable August dates at Haneda have occasionally exceeded 36°C during heat waves, though such extremes occur in roughly one year per decade.

Traders should monitor Japan's weather forecasts from mid-August onwards, particularly any alerts from the Japan Meteorological Agency regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—creates a technical dependency worth verifying before settlement. Any disruptions to Haneda's weather station operations or data reporting could affect resolution certainty, making confirmation of data availability a key factor in position sizing.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.