Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s early-August heat is usually firmly in summer range: long-run August averages sit around 30–31°C for daytime highs, with typical daily highs near 31°C and monthly records well above 37°C.[1][5][6] That makes a **0% YES** crowd price look detached from climatology rather than from a specific cold-weather signal. In other words, for this market to pay out, the highest reading at Tokyo Haneda on the day would need to stay outside the settlement band used by the market, which is much more consistent with an unusually cool day than with the normal August pattern at Haneda.[1][11][14]

The historical frame also matters because Tokyo’s August temperatures are not just warm on average; they are often hot enough to produce highs in the low-to-mid 30s, and the city’s record August heat has reached the high 30s °C.[2][3][5] Recent historical data for Tokyo also shows plenty of August days finishing around 32–36°C, reinforcing that a single-day maximum in the low 30s is far from exceptional.[8][10] For traders, the key reference is not the monthly average but whether the day gets any meaningful cooling from cloud, rain, or marine flow around the airport, since Haneda can differ from the broader Tokyo averages used in climate summaries.[11][14]

The main catalysts are the day-of weather setup and any forecast revisions into the morning of 2 August, especially changes in cloud cover, precipitation, and wind direction that could cap the afternoon high. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Tokyo points to highs generally in the low-to-upper 80s °F, which is consistent with roughly 28–32°C rather than an anomalously cool outcome.[9] Because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station during the day, traders should watch the intraday forecast and the airport’s actual afternoon progression rather than just the daily summary, as the settlement outcome depends on the peak observation on site.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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