Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 20 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement based on which temperature range bracket the peak reading falls into. The market currently shows 0% probability, suggesting traders expect the actual temperature to fall outside the highest range option available.

August in Tokyo typically sees peak temperatures between 32–35°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing above 37°C. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that mid-August represents the tail end of Tokyo's summer heat season, when temperatures have often begun a slight decline from July's peaks. The 2010 heat wave saw Tokyo reach 40.5°C in early August, whilst more recent summers have produced readings in the 35–38°C range during late August. The current 0% probability suggests the market's highest temperature bracket sits above what climatological norms and recent precedent would reasonably support for that specific date.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the week preceding 20 August, as these will provide the most reliable guidance on whether atmospheric conditions favour above-normal or near-normal temperatures. Typhoon activity in late August can suppress temperatures significantly, so any tropical storm systems tracking towards central Honshu in mid-August would be a critical catalyst. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 August, giving traders access to actual recorded data from Haneda within hours of the market's resolution deadline.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.