Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime heat is the key variable here, because the market resolves off the **highest temperature at Haneda Airport** rather than the city-wide figure. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s Tokyo-area daily data already shows Haneda at **35.6°C on 1 August** and **33.0°C on 2 August**, while broader Tokyo readings were even higher inland, which underlines how coastal airport temperatures can sit a little below the city’s hottest districts.[1] In that context, a current crowd price of **0% YES** looks extreme relative to the summer baseline, especially given that August in Tokyo is typically the warmest part of the year with average highs around **31°C**.[5][14]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same-day forecast trend, cloud cover, rain chances and whether the heat builds late enough in the afternoon to challenge the top bracket before the settlement window closes at noon UTC. Forecast services have Tokyo around the **high-20s to low-30s Celsius** for 4 August, with one source showing **22–28°C** and another suggesting an afternoon peak near the mid-80s Fahrenheit, which is consistent with a result around the upper 20s Celsius rather than the low 30s.[3][4][10] The practical dependency is whether Haneda sees a brief warm spell or stays capped by sea breezes and cloud; even a small shift in timing matters because the market resolves on the day’s single highest reading at the station.[1]

Recent market evidence also suggests traders have been willing to pay up for hot Tokyo outcomes when the setup is clear: a related event on 1 August resolved to **35°C**, showing that extreme readings are possible in this stretch of the calendar.[18] But airport-specific highs tend to undershoot inland wards on the hottest days, so the probability should be read through the lens of location, not just Tokyo’s headline forecast.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.