Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda is the settlement point, so the key number is the day’s *single highest* reading at the airport station, not the citywide average or the official Tokyo core observation. JMA’s early August table already shows Haneda’s highs in the mid-30s °C on 1–2 August, while central Tokyo and nearby wards have also posted similar levels, which means the market is really asking whether 5 August lands in a familiar late-summer band or pushes higher than the recent run. [1][6]

That framing matters because the current crowd-implied **0% YES** is far below the broader weather signals. Market pricing elsewhere has Tokyo around the high 20s to low 30s °C bracket for 5 August, but hourly forecasts and monthly climate guides still point to a hot afternoon, with highs near 31–33°C being normal for early August and occasional spikes above that during heatwave periods. [2][8][9][12] The recent heat pattern across Japan also shows that extreme temperatures have been a live theme this summer, with Reuters reporting record heat in the country in August 2025, underlining how quickly late-season warmth can outrun consensus models. [13]

For traders, the main catalysts are the daytime temperature profile, any updated local forecast for Tokyo Bay, and whether sea-breeze or cloud cover suppresses the midday peak at Haneda. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, which is early evening in Tokyo, so the decisive move can come well before the calendar day ends locally if the airport hits its maximum during the afternoon. Updates from meteorological services and forecast desks are the most relevant inputs, because a small shift of one or two degrees can move the result into a different bracket.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.