Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature on 6 August will be judged by the day’s single highest reading at Haneda Airport, with settlement based on the Wunderground history page for that station. Early-forecast guides put Tokyo’s August daytime highs broadly in the low 30s Celsius, with AccuWeather showing 88°F/31°C for 6 August and a similar 87°F/30°C the following day, which is consistent with the city’s normal midsummer range rather than an outlier heat event.[1][3][9]

That is why a 0% implied chance on the current market looks more like a pricing anomaly than a strong weather signal: Tokyo in August commonly sits around 30–31°C for average highs, and recent JMA daily data already show Haneda producing mid-30s peaks earlier this month, including 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August.[2][8][9] Comparable Tokyo August markets have already resolved in the high-20s or low-30s Celsius band, which underlines that the relevant question is not whether it will be hot, but whether Haneda briefly gets into the higher bucket during the afternoon peak.[20]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any heat advisories, and the day’s cloud cover, rain chance and sea-breeze pattern, all of which can shift the afternoon maximum by a degree or two. The market should also be watched against the official JMA station readings and the Wunderground archive used for settlement, because a late peak after midday UTC can still matter if temperatures continue rising locally towards the Tokyo afternoon.[2][5][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Which sports markets are available?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.