Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature market is being priced against a city that is normally hot and humid in August, with long-run guides putting average highs around 86°F and typical daily highs for August 2026 clustered roughly between 82°F and 90°F. That makes a very low implied probability for the top band unusual on the face of it, because the seasonal baseline already sits well above the lower Celsius ranges that are usually used for summer temperature markets in Japan.[1][17]

Comparable August forecasts for Tokyo point to daily highs around 32°C, with some sources also flagging light rain or mostly cloudy conditions rather than a sharp cool spell. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s short-range products show Tokyo frequently sitting in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius even on showery days, while travel weather references describe August as the hottest month in the city; together, that suggests the market is mainly about whether heat and sunshine hold through the day, not whether Tokyo can warm at all.[12][13][18]

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning and early-afternoon readings at Haneda Airport, since the market resolves on the highest value in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the summary high/low box. The watch points are any updated hourly forecast shifts, convective showers, or cloud cover changes that could suppress the daytime peak; the practical dependency is whether temperatures climb before sea-breeze effects, rain bands, or late-day cloud build-out limit the maximum.[7][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.