Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's summer heat peaks in mid-July, with the city regularly experiencing temperatures exceeding 35°C during this period. The Japan Meteorological Agency's records show that July 14 typically falls within Tokyo's hottest stretch, when Pacific high-pressure systems dominate and humidity levels remain elevated. Historical data from Haneda Airport, the official measurement station for this market, indicates that temperatures on this date have ranged between 32°C and 37°C over the past two decades, with 2010 and 2013 recording particularly intense heat waves during this window.

The 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty around which specific temperature band will be recorded rather than doubt about whether heat will occur. Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in early July, particularly from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models, which typically show skill in predicting seasonal heat patterns three to four weeks ahead. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific can influence whether July 2026 trends toward the hotter or cooler end of the historical range. Additionally, urban heat island effects around Haneda have intensified over the past decade, potentially shifting baseline expectations upward compared to older historical averages.

The settlement window closes at noon UTC on July 14, giving traders access to actual recorded temperatures from Haneda's meteorological station. Wunderground's historical database provides transparent access to the raw data, eliminating ambiguity around the final resolution figure once the day concludes.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.