Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo faces its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the highest temperature at Haneda Airport Station set to determine the outcome of this weather prediction market. Historical data for mid-July in Tokyo consistently shows daytime highs clustering between 32°C and 34°C, making outcomes below 30°C or above 36°C statistically rare for this specific station [2]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any single outcome appears misaligned with these established seasonal norms, as the frontrunner "33°C" already commands a 40% market share, followed closely by "34°C" at 28% [1].

Traders should monitor real-time atmospheric updates from Wunderground as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, since the resolution source relies exclusively on the highest recorded temperature for that day at the Haneda station [1]. Key dependencies include the intensity of the afternoon sun and any sudden cloud cover or rain showers, which can rapidly depress temperatures from the typical 32–34°C range [2]. While the market currently shows no active probability for specific ranges, the concentration of implied odds on 33°C and 34°C suggests the crowd expects standard mid-summer conditions rather than an extreme heatwave or cool anomaly.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.