Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s hottest reading on 24 July is still open to a weather call rather than a form guide, and the market is being priced off how warm Haneda gets by the end of the settlement window. The immediate backdrop points to a hot, changeable summer day: one Japanese forecast puts Tokyo at **34C** with cloud increasing and thunderstorms possible from late afternoon into the evening[1]. That is a meaningful signal for the upper end of the range, but not a guarantee of a clear high if rain or sea-breeze effects arrive early.

For context, late July in Tokyo is normally one of the warmest parts of the year, with July highs around **30C** and frequent rain, so anything in the mid-30s sits above the monthly norm[2][3]. That helps explain why a **0% YES** price looks aggressive if the market’s “YES” band requires a very specific higher reading: the forecast itself leaves room for a high-30s outcome, but also for a ceiling imposed by afternoon cloud and rain. Traders should watch the next updates from local forecasters, especially any change in thunderstorm timing or rainfall intensity, because a quicker-onset wet spell would cap the Haneda maximum even if the morning starts hot[1].

The key catalysts are the final pre-settlement forecast revisions, the timing of convective rain over the Tokyo area, and whether coastal winds keep Haneda slightly cooler than central Tokyo. With the market resolving on the **highest recorded temperature** at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, even a short-lived warm spike before storms matters more than the rest of the day’s conditions[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.