Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 5 July 2026 is being tracked at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with Wunderground serving as the official resolution source. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for any specific outcome appears inconsistent with historical patterns, as July in Tokyo typically sees highs between 26°C and 28°C.

Historical data from recent years shows that July 5 temperatures at Haneda have consistently fallen within the 26–28°C range, with 27°C being the most frequent peak. For instance, last year’s July 5 recorded 27.3°C, and the five-year average for this date is 26.8°C. This suggests that a 0% probability for any outcome is likely a market anomaly rather than a reflection of real-world likelihood[3].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for 5 July, particularly the 14:00–16:00 window when peak temperatures usually occur. Any sudden shift in cloud cover or precipitation could alter the outcome, as light rain is forecast for the day[6]. Additionally, watch for Wunderground’s official daily high release, which typically occurs by 12:00 UTC the following day. Recent weather models indicate a 49% chance of light rain on 5 July, which could suppress temperatures below the typical range[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.