Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is currently experiencing a 30°C maximum daytime temperature with overnight lows of 24°C, setting a baseline for the extreme heat expected on 7 July 2026 at Haneda Airport. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific outcome appears inconsistent with broader market data, where the frontrunner bin is 24°C at 50% and 25°C holds 33%[1]. Historical patterns for early July in this region show daily highs frequently ranging between 76°F and 91°F (24°C to 33°C), with recent records in Tamba city hitting 41.2°C, indicating that temperatures well above 24°C are statistically probable rather than negligible[5][7].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily history for RJTT as the settlement source, paying close attention to any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress the peak temperature below the 24°C bin[1]. The Met Office forecast suggests a maximum of 27°C for the coming week, which directly challenges the 0% probability assigned to higher ranges and aligns with the 38% market estimate for the 27°C bin[2][4]. Key dependencies include the precise timing of the daily high, as Haneda’s coastal location often moderates peaks compared to inland cities, yet the current 89% humidity and gentle breeze at the airport suggest conditions ripe for sustained warmth rather than a cool anomaly[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.