Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Toronto will experience its highest recorded temperature on 9 July 2026 at the Pearson International Airport, with the market currently pricing a 26°C outcome at zero probability. Historical data for July at this station shows daily highs typically centre around 79°F (26°C), rarely dipping below 70°F or exceeding 89°F, with the peak average occurring on 20 July[3]. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders view a 26°C threshold as unlikely despite the seasonal norm, possibly anticipating a cooler day or a resolution bracket that excludes this specific value, even though recent forecasts indicate highs ranging from 73°F to 93°F for the month[2].

Traders should monitor immediate weather updates for the week of 3–9 July, which is projected to be the hottest week in the US over the past decade, potentially driving heat indices near 110°F in risk areas[7]. While Toronto saw a significant heatwave on 2 July that grounded hundreds of flights across Canada, the specific conditions for 9 July remain dependent on short-term atmospheric shifts rather than the broader seasonal trend[5]. Meteorologists note that seasonable heat continues through early July with Thursday expected to be the warmest day so far, meaning the 9 July temperature could be influenced by this lingering warmth or a sudden cooling front[6]. The resolution relies strictly on Wunderground data for the Pearson station, so any discrepancy between forecast models and actual recorded highs will be the primary catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.