Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s airport has started August on the cool side, with the last available daily observations showing highs mostly in the low-to-mid teens Celsius and only one day briefly reaching about 16°C. That sits close to the city’s normal August pattern: historical sources put the month’s average high around 12–13°C, with the more detailed Wunderground history for Wellington Airport showing a recent run of daily highs between roughly 9°C and 16°C in early August. [7][1][2][8]

That backdrop helps explain why a 0% “YES” price is hard to treat as a statement about certainty rather than positioning. Comparable August climate records for Wellington show that mid-teens are ordinary, while materially warmer outcomes are less frequent; one climate summary cites an August record high of 15.8°C, with another broader source putting the month’s record high higher still at 18°C or 61°F in a different dataset. [11][13][17] For traders, the key dependency is the final Wunderground Daily Observations entry for Wellington Intl Airport on 10 August 2026, since the market resolves to the highest temperature in that table, not the site’s summary high/low panel. [7]

The main catalyst is simply the day’s actual weather evolution at the airport: any late-morning or afternoon clearing, wind shifts, or passing fronts can move the maximum temperature enough to change the relevant band. Wellington is often influenced by brisk winds and changeable cloud cover in August, with recent history already showing gusty days and variable humidity in the airport observations, so the settlement value will depend on the precise daily maximum recorded rather than on broader city averages or forecast ranges. [7][14][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.