Highest temperature in Wellington on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 19 August 2026 will be measured at the airport weather station, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. August is Wellington's winter month in the Southern Hemisphere, typically characterised by cool conditions and variable weather patterns driven by Southern Ocean systems.

Historical August temperatures at Wellington Airport show a mean maximum around 11–12°C, with records rarely exceeding 15°C during the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper threshold to fall below historical norms for the date, or that the specific resolution methodology creates uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately settle. August weather in Wellington frequently features frontal systems bringing cooler southwesterly flows, though occasional föhn winds from the northwest can produce localised warming.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasting models from mid-August onwards, as the 10-day window before settlement allows for reasonably reliable predictions of synoptic patterns. The New Zealand MetService typically issues detailed forecasts for Wellington from around 7–10 days out. Any unusual anticyclonic systems or warm air masses moving south during that period could shift probabilities materially. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than official MetService records—means traders should verify historical consistency between these sources for Wellington Airport data to assess settlement risk.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.