Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s temperature at the airport is usually well-anchored in the single digits to low teens in August, so the market is effectively asking whether the day’s maximum gets anywhere near the warmer end of the winter band. Recent August climate pages put average highs around 11–12°C, with daily values commonly clustering between about 9°C and 12°C, while AccuWeather’s August outlook shows a similar pattern around 12°C to 13°C for the month and a 6 August forecast close to 12°C to 13°C.[1][3][5][7]

That context makes a **0% YES** price hard to read as a pure weather call unless the contract’s YES side requires an unusually high threshold. Wellington’s airport readings are often affected by passing cloud, onshore wind and intermittent rain, and the current weather sources for the city show cool, breezy conditions rather than anything that would typically drive a sharp afternoon spike.[4][6][16] For comparison, recent daily forecasts from the same location have repeatedly sat near 13°C maximums, which is consistent with the broader winter climatology rather than an extreme warmth event.[6][16]

Traders should watch the official airport observation stream through the day, because the settlement is based on the **highest temperature recorded** at Wellington Intl Airport Station on 6 August, not the forecast high.[9] Any late morning or early afternoon clearing, stronger northerly flow, or dry down-slope influence could lift the day’s peak, while persistent cloud, showers, or a coastal breeze would keep the maximum near the lower end of the usual August range.[12][13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.