Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport, with resolution based on the highest figure in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations rather than the summary high. Current forecasts lean cool and unsettled: AccuWeather has Wellington at about 14°C with cloud and a steady breeze, while Wunderground’s hourly outlook points to cloud and rain developing after midnight, which tends to cap daytime heating rather than produce a late spike.[1][6]

The current 0% yes pricing is understandable because this market only needs the top hourly observation to land in the relevant band, and Wellington’s early-August climate usually sits in a narrow winter range. Climatology sources put August highs around 11–12°C, with daily highs rarely exceeding 14°C, so a forecast centred near 12–14°C makes a materially hotter outcome uncommon but not impossible if there is a brief sunny break or a stronger-than-expected northerly wind.[2][8][15]

What traders should watch is whether the airport station logs any short-lived midday warm-up before the rain arrives, since the settlement source is the observation table and not the day-high summary. The most relevant dependencies are the timing of rain, cloud break-up, and wind shifts in the Wellington Airport forecast feed; if the system stays overcast and breezy through the afternoon, the observed maximum is likely to remain near the lower end of the forecast envelope.[3][6][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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