Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 1 July 2026, with the market currently assigning a 0% probability to any outcome above the lowest range, despite historical data showing Wellington’s July highs often reach 12°C or higher. Polymarket data indicates 12°C is the frontrunner at 68% probability, suggesting the 0% crowd-implied probability on this specific market may reflect a mispricing or a different resolution threshold than expected[1]. Historically, Wellington’s hottest July day hit 34.2°C on 15 July 2013, while the city’s all-time maximum of 30.3°C was recorded in Kelburn on the same day in 2013, confirming that July temperatures in Wellington can be significantly warmer than the current market implies[2][3].

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from NIWA and Wunderground updates for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or southerly winds could alter the day’s peak temperature. NIWA’s recent heatwave analysis notes that two main centres broke their all-time maxima simultaneously in 2013, highlighting the potential for extreme temperature spikes even in winter months[3]. Additionally, the settlement window ends on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, so any late-morning temperature spikes recorded before this cutoff will determine the outcome, making real-time Wunderground data critical for accurate positioning[1]. No major weather forecasts have been released yet, but the dependency on a single data source means traders must watch for any gaps or anomalies in the Wunderground feed that could affect resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.