Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low on 5 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s published **absolute daily minimum**, and the current market is priced almost entirely around a **27°C** reading. That is consistent with Hong Kong’s midsummer pattern, when warm, humid nights often hold minima in the high 20s unless rain and persistent cloud cover keep temperatures from falling after midnight. [1][5][17]

The main historical guide is that August lows in Hong Kong are usually clustered in a narrow band, so one-tenth-of-a-degree detail matters less than whether the night is wet and overcast or merely humid and breezy. The 2025 weather record shows how quickly a cooler outcome can emerge when rain is sustained: the Observatory noted a monthly low of **24.0°C** on 5 August 2025 during incessant downpour, but that was an exception rather than the rule. [16][17] With the current crowd implying 0% for a lower bucket, traders are effectively saying the setup is for a standard warm summer night rather than a rain-cooled outlier. [1]

The catalysts to watch are the Observatory’s late-day and overnight forecasts, any upgraded rain or thunderstorm warnings, and whether cloud cover remains thick enough to limit radiative cooling into the early morning. Current public-facing guidance points to light winds, high humidity and isolated showers, with only limited support for a drop to **26°C** or below unless rainfall becomes more organised than expected. [1][5][17] The market will only resolve once the Daily Extract is finalised, and later revisions will not count. [1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.