Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on 6 August is being shaped by a familiar late-summer pattern: hot, humid air and intermittent showers. The Hong Kong Observatory’s August normals put 6 August’s mean minimum at 26.8°C, while recent forecast material points to overnight lows around 26°C and daytime highs near 32°C, which is consistent with a low that stays well above the 25.0°C bracket threshold unless a stronger-than-expected rain band or cooler maritime flow arrives.[3][8]

That is why the current **0% YES** pricing is easy to read as a market expecting the realised low to land outside the listed lower bands. Comparable August readings and climatology for Hong Kong usually keep minima in the mid- to high-20s Celsius, and even when showers are present the published forecast profiles still cluster around 26–27°C rather than anything close to a cool-night outlier.[3][15] The key reference point for traders is therefore not whether it rains, but whether convection, cloud cover, or a late change in wind direction can shave the overnight minimum by at least a degree relative to the forecast consensus.[8][11]

The main catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s short-term bulletins, hourly readings, and any thunderstorm or rain warnings before the overnight minimum is locked in. At 9 a.m., the Observatory had already reported 29°C at headquarters, 86% humidity, and a thunderstorm warning with showers expected to affect Hong Kong later in the morning, which matters because rainfall timing can alter the evening cooling profile.[5] Traders should also watch the updated local forecast and any changes to the rain/shower outlook, since the settlement will ultimately depend on the Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min” entry rather than headline daytime conditions.[6][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.