Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is forecast to stay hot and humid, with the Hong Kong Observatory putting 8 August in a range of 28 to 35°C and warning of extremely hot conditions, while other forecasts show a low near 29°C and afternoon showers or thunderstorms arriving later in the day.[4][9] That makes a sub-25°C minimum look very unlikely unless an unexpected, strong rain band arrives earlier than forecast or cloud/rain coverage suppresses overnight cooling far more than model guidance suggests.[2][8]

The current **0% YES** pricing is consistent with Hong Kong’s August climatology: the month is typically among the city’s hottest, with average nighttime temperatures in the high 20s°C and recent Augusts producing mean daily minima well above the teens.[10][11][15] Even in a comparatively mild August regime, the low for this date would usually be read against a baseline of warm nights rather than any realistic cold-snap scenario, so traders should treat the market as mainly a test of whether the Observatory publishes an outlier reading, not a broad temperature swing.[10][15]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s final daily extract for 8 August and any late changes to the forecast text, especially if showers or thunderstorms arrive earlier or linger into the night.[3][4][9] At the moment, the live forecast already shows daytime heat and only a modest chance of evening rain, which favours a high minimum temperature rather than a surprise dip.[2][5] With settlement tied to the Hong Kong Observatory’s published “Absolute Daily Min” and not to a private forecast, the decisive factor is the final official reading once the day’s data are locked in.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.