Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low on 9 August will be measured by the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” in the final Daily Extract, so the market is really about whether the city avoids even a modest pre-dawn dip rather than the daytime heat. The crowd’s 0% YES pricing implies traders see no realistic path to an unusually cool reading, which is consistent with Hong Kong’s August climate, where the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals put 9 August’s mean minimum at 26.9°C[2].

Recent and comparable data point the same way. Over the past fortnight, Hong Kong’s lows have generally sat in the mid-to-high 20s °C, with recent historical weather sources showing minimums around 26.5°C to 29°C and only a brief dip to 76°F on 31 July in one station record[1][5][12]. The Observatory’s August climate summary also shows that even on 9 August the long-run minimum is far above anything that would support a low-temperature upset, while August 2024 was notably hot and persistent rather than cool or unsettled[2][6].

For traders, the key catalysts are the overnight cloud cover, rain bands, and any strengthening monsoon flow, since these are the main mechanisms that can shave a degree or two off the minimum before sunrise. The current forecast sources are still pointing to a warm, humid day with an overnight low around 84°F, or roughly 28.9°C, and only limited rain chances, which leaves little room for a materially lower daily minimum unless the setup changes late[16][18]. The market cannot settle until the Observatory publishes the final extract for the date, so the last update from Hong Kong weather services is the relevant dependency[3][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.