Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the lowest temperature on 13 July 2026, with settlement depending on the absolute daily minimum reading published in their Daily Extract dataset. Hong Kong's subtropical climate produces consistently warm conditions during mid-July, when the territory typically experiences the onset of the southwest monsoon season and elevated humidity levels.

Historical data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows July daily minima in the territory rarely fall below 25°C. Over the past two decades, the lowest July temperatures have clustered between 24–26°C, with readings below 24°C occurring only during anomalous weather patterns or tropical storm passages. The 0% crowd probability reflects the statistical improbability of temperatures dropping significantly below the seasonal norm during this period, though traders should note that tropical cyclone activity or unusual upper-level atmospheric conditions could theoretically drive minima lower than the typical range.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone warnings issued in the weeks preceding 13 July. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, but the Observatory typically publishes final daily temperature data within 24–48 hours of the observation period. Any significant deviation from normal monsoon patterns or unexpected weather systems would be the primary catalyst affecting the probability distribution across available temperature bands.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.