Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's lowest temperature on 19 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July represents the height of summer in Shanghai, with the city typically experiencing hot, humid conditions during this period. The lowest temperature recorded on any given July day in Shanghai rarely falls below 24–26°C, as nighttime cooling is limited by the city's urban heat island effect and subtropical climate patterns.

Historical July temperature records for Shanghai show that minimum temperatures in the 24–28°C range are standard for mid-summer, with occasional dips to 22–24°C during periods of atmospheric instability or tropical storm activity. The 0% crowd probability assigned to this market likely reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve, rather than doubt about whether a lowest temperature will be recorded. Comparable July dates in prior years provide the most reliable baseline: Shanghai's meteorological records consistently show that sub-20°C lows in July are exceptionally rare, occurring only during significant weather systems.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts and monsoon patterns in the weeks leading to 19 July, as these represent the primary catalysts for temperature variation. The China Meteorological Administration issues seasonal outlooks that can signal whether above-average or below-average temperatures are expected for July 2026. Real-time weather models become reliable approximately 10–14 days before the settlement date, allowing traders to refine positioning based on atmospheric pressure systems and moisture patterns developing over East Asia.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.