Next Prime Minister of Sweden

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Parliamentary elections to elect Sweden’s 349 Riksdag members are set for 13 September 2026, with the new parliament subsequently appointing the next Prime Minister. This is the first election since Sweden joined NATO in March 2024, ending 212 years of military non-alignment[1]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific candidate reflects the absence of a declared frontrunner and the fluidity of coalition negotiations typical in Sweden’s multi-party system.

Historically, Swedish prime ministers emerge from post-election bargaining rather than pre-election mandates. Comparable cases include the 2018 and 2022 elections, where no single party won a majority, leading to prolonged negotiations and interim caretaker governments that did not count toward resolution[7]. In both instances, the appointed Prime Minister assumed office only after weeks of coalition talks, underscoring why early probabilities remain negligible until the Riksdag formally elects its leader.

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: the release of final opinion polls (currently led by Socialdemokraterna at 32.4%)[3], the official publication of voting cards by 26 August 2026[2], and any announcements regarding election security against foreign malign influence[4]. The Swedish Election Authority will publish live vote counts on val.se during the election evening, with final results accessible there[2]. Until the Riksdag convenes and elects a Prime Minister who officially assumes office, no candidate can be resolved, making the settlement window ending 30 June 2027 critical for “Other” outcomes if no appointment occurs[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Next Prime Minister of Sweden on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.