Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on 28 July 2026 will determine which range this market resolves to. South Korea's southern coastal region experiences peak summer heat in late July, with Busan typically recording daily highs between 28–32°C during this period, though extreme heat waves can push readings above 34°C.

Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that Busan's July temperatures have become more volatile over the past decade. The city recorded 34.2°C on 28 July 2018 and 33.8°C on 29 July 2023, establishing that readings in the low-to-mid 30s are well within normal variation for this date. However, the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally cool spell or systematic underestimation of summer heat patterns in the region. Comparable coastal cities at similar latitudes show that late-July highs rarely fall below 28°C.

Traders should monitor the East Asian summer monsoon forecast and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late July 2026, as these systems significantly influence Korean peninsula temperatures. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts two weeks ahead; their 28 July prediction will be the primary catalyst for market movement. Real-time conditions in the week preceding settlement will also matter, as heat dome positioning over the Korean peninsula can shift rapidly. Gimhae Airport's elevation and coastal proximity mean its readings may differ slightly from central Busan measurements.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.