Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

São Paulo’s weather into 7 August points to a fairly restrained ceiling rather than a heat spike, with most local forecasts clustering around the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius. Rio Times and G1 both point to a daytime high near 25–27°C, while CGE’s city bulletin also puts the maximum at 25°C and says cloudier, more unsettled weather arrives later in the day[1][2][14]. That lines up with the market’s current 0% YES pricing only if traders expect the airport station to run well below the upper end of the forecast range; the more relevant comparison is that late-winter São Paulo highs are typically modest, with long-run August averages in the low to mid-20s Celsius rather than anything extreme[3][8].

The main catalysts are timing and whether warmth builds before cloud and showers suppress the daily maximum. AccuWeather’s 10-day view and G1 both flag a mostly cloudy, breezy afternoon with thunderstorms in spots, while CGE says rain becomes more likely from late afternoon into night as a front approaches[13][14][2]. For this market, the key issue is the highest reading in the Weather Underground daily observations for São Paulo-Guarulhos Airport before the settlement window closes, not the summary high/low figure, so a brief earlier surge above the headline forecast would matter even if the afternoon cools quickly[11]. With airport observations already showing a mild evening and no sign of intense heat, the practical watchpoints are any last-minute convective burst, wind shift, or delayed cloud cover that could lift the temperature into a higher bracket before the cutoff[11][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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