Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-August sits firmly within the East Asian summer monsoon season, with the Korean peninsula experiencing its most consistently hot period of the year. Incheon International Airport, the designated measurement station, typically records daily highs in the 29–32°C range during this window, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool spell or uncertainty about the specific temperature bands available in this market's resolution structure.

Historical August records for Incheon show extreme temperatures are possible but rare. The station has recorded peaks above 34°C in August during notable heat events, most recently in 2018 when the region experienced a significant heat wave. However, the past five years have seen more moderate patterns, with most mid-August highs clustering between 28–31°C. The critical distinction here is that Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—governs settlement, a methodological detail that can occasionally produce different readings depending on measurement timing and station protocols.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the week preceding 19 August 2026, particularly any alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late summer can also suppress temperatures significantly. The current 0% reading warrants scrutiny of whether the available temperature bands in this market's resolution options simply don't align with typical August conditions at Incheon, rather than reflecting genuine meteorological improbability.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.