Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering its peak summer heatwave period as the month of June concludes, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station expected to record temperatures near the upper end of its seasonal range tomorrow. Historical data indicates that daily high temperatures in June at this location typically climb from 77°F to 83°F, rarely exceeding 92°F or falling below 69°F, while the hot season officially begins on June 17 and lasts until mid-September [1][2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 31% for a specific temperature range aligns with these norms, as July remains the hottest month with an average high of 87°F, suggesting that late June conditions are approaching but not yet fully at peak intensity [2].

Traders should monitor the immediate weather forecast for Tuesday, 30 June, which predicts a high of 27°C (80°F) with 84% humidity and steady pressure at 1011mb, factors that could suppress maximum temperature readings if cloud cover persists [3]. The resolution depends entirely on the Wunderground record for the highest temperature at all times on this day, making the timing of the daily peak crucial, as solar energy incident is gradually decreasing throughout June from 6.0 kWh to 5.1 kWh [1]. Any sudden shift in wind speed, which remains constant at roughly 11.3 mph, or unexpected precipitation could alter the final recorded figure, so real-time updates from the National Weather Service for station ZSPD are the primary dependency for settlement [1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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