Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Los Angeles International Airport will record its peak daily temperature, a figure that historically clusters between 79°F and 90°F in mid-summer, with the all-time high for this date reaching 96°F[1][4]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside a specific, likely lower, range, which aligns with historical data showing July highs rarely dip below 79°F[1]. Comparable cases from recent years and the all-time record indicate that a temperature below 76°F would be an extreme anomaly, making the 0% probability a rational reflection of the region’s typical thermal behaviour for this date[4][9].

Traders should monitor real-time weather forecasts from AccuWeather and Wunderground for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or marine layer intensity, which are the primary catalysts for cooler daily highs in Los Angeles[1]. While no major announcements are expected, the marine layer’s strength on the morning of 9 July will be the decisive dependency, as a persistent overcast could suppress temperatures below the typical 85°F average[1]. Recent prediction market data from Lines.com and Robinhood further confirms that the 76–77°F range is considered unlikely, reinforcing the need to watch for early-morning atmospheric conditions that could deviate from the norm[2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.