Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at LaGuardia on 26 July is the settlement point, and the market is currently pricing a modestly warm but not extreme outcome, with the 84-85°F band the leading result on the exchange at 41% and 82-83°F close behind at 36%.[1] That distribution suggests traders are leaning towards a capped afternoon high rather than a breakout heat event, which fits a summer-day forecast around the high 80s for New York rather than a major spike.[3]

For context, July heat in New York can move quickly when a regional heat wave builds, and forecasters have warned in recent weeks that the wider city and Tri-State area could face much hotter conditions at times, with peak readings well above 100°F in the most severe episodes.[4] A 0% Yes price would therefore imply the market sees very little chance of a number outside the listed bands, so the key question is not whether it will be warm, but whether LaGuardia stays within the market’s centre of gravity or slips into a higher bracket if the city stays under a stronger heat dome.[1][2]

The main catalysts traders should watch are the late cycle weather updates from official forecasters, any revised heat advisories, and the timing of maximum warmth relative to the noon UTC settlement window, since an early-morning reading can differ sharply from the day’s eventual high.[4] At this stage, any fresh shift in cloud cover, wind off the harbour, or thunderstorms later in the day matters more than broad seasonal expectations, because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia, not the headline city forecast.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.