Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer temperatures in mid-August typically peak between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The Incheon International Airport weather station, which serves as the official observation point for this market, has recorded August 16th highs ranging from 26°C to 34°C over the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall outside the uppermost ranges being offered, though the specific threshold bands are not detailed in available market parameters.

Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August typically represents the tail end of Seoul's peak summer heat, with conditions beginning to moderate slightly compared to late July and early August peaks. August 16th has occasionally coincided with the arrival of monsoon systems or tropical storm remnants, which can suppress temperatures significantly. Conversely, persistent high-pressure systems have driven readings above 33°C on this date in roughly one year per decade over recent records.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts issued in the week preceding August 16th, 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or atmospheric disturbances. Typhoon activity in late summer can shift Seoul's weather patterns substantially, and any tropical systems tracking toward the Korean peninsula in mid-August would be the primary catalyst affecting temperature outcomes. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring resolution against the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.