Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

Shanghai is entering its hot, humid rainy season, where June highs typically climb between 25°C and 35°C depending on cloud cover. On sunny days, temperatures frequently reach 30–35°C, while cloudy or rainy periods see highs hover around 25–30°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability for any outcome below 27°C appears inconsistent with this baseline, as historical data shows daily highs rarely dip below 25°C even during overcast weather.

Historical patterns for late June at Pudong Airport confirm that temperatures consistently exceed 27°C on most days, with averages near 30°C. Recent markets for Shanghai’s lowest temperature on June 26 show a 98% probability for 21°C, indicating stable warm conditions overnight, which supports the likelihood of a high daytime peak. The current frontrunner of 27°C at 64% aligns with these trends, suggesting the market is correctly pricing in a warm day despite the zero probability assigned to lower ranges.

Traders should monitor weather updates for June 27, particularly forecasts for cloud cover or rain, which could suppress highs toward the 25–27°C range. Flight information from JAL notes potential delays at Pudong due to bad weather on this date, hinting at possible storm activity that might lower temperatures. No major coaching changes or team absences apply here, but the dependency on real-time meteorological data remains critical for accurate settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.