In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the sole federally-regulated option for American bettors. Manifold offers a play-money environment ideal for casual forecasters and community engagement. European traders will find Polymarket accessed through PolyGram to be the strongest choice.
Prediction markets have surged in adoption throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly transaction value. Most robust order books for political and digital-asset predictions |
| Markets | 1,000+ live markets spanning politics, digital assets, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | No house fee structure. Typical bid-ask spread ranges from 1–3 cents |
| Currency | USDC settled on Polygon blockchain (digital assets required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional forecasters seeking competitive advantage |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction exchange. It welcomes US-based participants who cannot access Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include reduced market selection relative to Polymarket, plus regulatory constraints that prohibit certain prediction categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform excels for sharpening forecasting abilities and crowdsourced prediction exercises — yet lacks appeal for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-generated prediction events.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of crowd-sourced probabilistic estimates from professional forecasters. Though it offers no financial incentives, it provides valuable opportunities to establish forecasting credentials and analyse global risk scenarios. Researchers regularly reference its prediction quality in peer-reviewed studies.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues processing substantial volumes across athletics and electoral markets annually. Strengths include traditional currency settlement, FCA oversight, and exceptional athletics market depth. Limitations encompass 2–5% commissions on net returns, absence of blockchain-based markets, and reduced political market coverage versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For traders outside the United States seeking maximum trading volume and the broadest selection of available predictions: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain interactions while granting you complete access to Polymarket's underlying liquidity pool. Start trading on PolyGram →