In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi offers the only federally-approved pathway for US-based bettors. Manifold caters to casual forecasters seeking entertainment without financial stakes. Throughout Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. Below is a detailed breakdown of how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi stands as America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market venue. It welcomes US residents (a demographic excluded from Polymarket) and has expanded substantially in recent years. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts relative to Polymarket, alongside regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. It functions as an excellent platform for honing forecasting abilities and participating in crowd-sourced predictions — yet lacks appeal for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-generated contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus compiles probability estimates submitted by its network of professional forecasters. Whilst no cash prizes are offered, it excels at establishing prediction credentials and analysing global political trends. Academic institutions frequently reference its data when evaluating forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues processing enormous sums across sporting and electoral contracts annually. Strengths include traditional currency support, FCA oversight, and unmatched sports contract depth. Drawbacks encompass 2-5% commissions levied on profits, absence of blockchain-based assets, and comparatively sparse election contract offerings versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For traders outside the US seeking maximum market depth and contract selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain interactions whilst preserving full access to Polymarket's comprehensive order books and sports markets. Start trading on PolyGram →