Bitcoin price on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price at noon Eastern Time on 21 August 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The settlement window extends nearly two years into the future, making this a medium-to-long-term directional bet on Bitcoin's value at a specific moment rather than a range forecast over an extended period.

Bitcoin's price discovery across intraday timeframes has historically shown volatility clustering around macroeconomic announcements and Federal Reserve communications. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market has not yet formed consensus on which price bracket will resolve, or traders are waiting for clearer catalysts before committing capital. Previous Bitcoin price predictions at fixed future dates have typically seen probability distributions widen as settlement approaches, reflecting increased uncertainty rather than convergence toward a single outcome. Comparable markets for cryptocurrency prices 18–24 months forward have resolved across unexpectedly wide ranges, partly because regulatory shifts, institutional adoption patterns, and geopolitical events create non-linear price movements.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments in US cryptocurrency regulation, particularly any legislative changes affecting spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds or custody frameworks. Macroeconomic conditions—inflation data, interest rate trajectories, and dollar strength—will influence Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets. Technical infrastructure upgrades to the Bitcoin network and shifts in institutional capital allocation toward digital assets represent secondary catalysts. The specific noon ET timestamp introduces microstructure risk; liquidity and order flow at that precise moment on Binance could differ materially from 24-hour average prices, creating execution slippage for large positions.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Bitcoin price on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.