Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Winner | 54% |
| Map 2 Winner | 54% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Map Handicap: EYE (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5) | 34% |
Market context
EYEBALLERS face Phantom in a best-of-three Winners’ match in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier, with the market currently leaning slightly towards EYEBALLERS at 54%. That pricing is consistent with the broader board, where EYEBALLERS are also a modest favourite in pre-match lines, although the gap is not large enough to suggest a dominant mismatch.[1][3][7]
The main frame for reading that probability is stability versus upside. EYEBALLERS have been priced ahead of Phantom in recent match coverage and team rankings, with one preview noting the Swedes around 18 places above Phantom and listing a 50% recent win rate, while Phantom were described as winning more than 60% of their recent matches.[11] That combination usually points to a market that is respecting EYEBALLERS’ more established level but also acknowledging that Phantom have been competitive enough to keep the line tight.[11][12]
For traders, the biggest catalysts are line-up confirmation, match timing, and whether the fixture stays on schedule. Current listings place the game at 09:00 UTC on 8 August, but the market settles on the actual result only if the match is completed, while a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days pushes it to 50-50.[1][2] No roster change or injury news has surfaced in recent previews, so any late replacement, technical delay, or rescheduling would matter more than the baseline form already priced in.[12]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Phantom (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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