Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Yawara Esports (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Yawara Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Yawara Esports (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Yawara Esports (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-9.5) vs Yawara Esports (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs Yawara Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs Yawara Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Yawara Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yawara Esports and Keyd face off in the BetBoom Storm Playoffs quarterfinal on 13 August, with the winner advancing to the semi-finals in this best-of-three encounter. The match represents a significant test for both South American rosters, with Yawara seeking to maintain momentum against a Keyd side rebuilding after roster adjustments earlier in the season. Current odds reflect substantial uncertainty, though the 0% implied probability suggests either technical issues with the market or extremely limited liquidity at present.
Historical precedent from regional Counter-Strike tournaments shows that quarterfinal matchups between teams of comparable tier often settle around 45–55 splits when both squads field stable lineups. Keyd's recent roster moves—including the departure of key players mid-season—created a transitional period that typically depresses performance metrics for 4–6 weeks post-change. Yawara, by contrast, has maintained core continuity, which historically correlates with tighter map pools and more predictable utility execution in high-pressure fixtures.
Traders should monitor official BetBoom communications for any schedule shifts or player availability announcements before the 13 August fixture. Recent reporting from esports desk coverage has emphasised Keyd's difficulty integrating new players into their default setups, particularly on T-side executes on Mirage and Inferno. Any last-minute roster confirmations or coaching staff changes in the 48 hours prior to match time could materially shift expected performance. The settlement window extends to 14 August at 02:00 UTC, allowing for potential delays without triggering the 50-50 tie resolution clause.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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