Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Yellow Submarine’s meeting with Execration is a best-of-three group-stage Dota 2 match at the Games of the Future, scheduled for 31 July, and the market’s 100% implied YES price effectively assumes the favourite has already been heavily confirmed by the live context rather than by long-run team strength alone.[1][15][18] Public match listings put Yellow Submarine around the low-20s in world ranking, with recent three-month form showing a 61% win rate across 31 maps, while Execration is listed nearer the low-40s; that gap, plus the lack of any deep head-to-head history on some listings, explains why traders have treated the match as one-sided.[3][9]

Comparable spot-checks matter because this is not a case where the market is pricing a proven dynasty; it is pricing a short-form bracket game where draft quality, stand-ins, and late schedule changes can matter as much as recent record. Historical comparables on the available listings also point in the same direction: one recent result page already shows Yellow Submarine beating Execration 2-0 in this event, which is exactly the sort of outcome that can harden a near-certain pre-match price if the market is still open.[5][12]

The main catalysts now are operational rather than strategic: official start times vary across listings, from 05:00 UTC to 05:35 UTC and 08:00 UTC, so traders should watch for the actual series start and whether the scheduled BO3 is already underway or fully complete before the settlement window closes.[1][6][10] There is also a betting listing that flags the match as postponed or cancelled, which is relevant because a non-played fixture would settle 50-50 under the market rules; in a live-event setting, the key dependency is whether a completed winner is recorded before the 7-day delay trigger expires.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.